Sri Lankan soldiers triumphant after capturing the Tigers in ThoppigalaBy pursuing an aggressive, decisive and bloody military campaign against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the Sri Lankan government has won the war in Sri Lanka. But the crucial question is really whether or not is has won the peace.
It can be argued, and it often is in international conflict resolution theory, that a short term high intensity conflict is sometimes better than a long-term low intensity conflict.
If we use John Stuart Mill's utilitarianism as the framework from which to ethically measure thie Sri Lankan conflict, it might be argued that although anywhere between 6,500 and 20,000 civilians were estimated (by the UN) to have been killed, that might be less than the overall amount of suffering and casualties that would have been perpetuated had this conflict continued on for yet another 10 years.
Of course, to make that argument you would have to be pretty sure of your predictions of the future. Who is?
In any case, all these arguments/justifications are meaningless if the conflict in Sri Lanka flares up again. So let's look briefly at whats left, what are the critical elements for the success of peace.
Tamil Minority left behind
What remains in the Tamil region is an exhausted, wounded and uprooted minority within the country of Sri Lanka and an embittered and still aggressive diaspora around the world.
While many Tamils in Sri Lanka did not support the LTTE, an estimated 250,000 civilians from the region are now displaced, how the government deals with this exhausted and impoverished population, and more importantly, what they do to help incorporate them into the rest of the country, will be vital to preventing the LTTE to regain the support of locals in rising up against the Sri Lankan government.
Men, women and children from the minority ethnic Tamil community crossed the front lines in the district of Mullaittivu, February 15, 2009. (Kuwait Times).Tamil Diaspora
Unfortunately, the Tamil Tigers abroad remain vigorously supportive of the LTTE movement. What I think you may see, is a situation similar to what occurred in Ireland with the IRA. An Irish diaspora with alot of funds (particularly in the US) continued to send arms and money to the movement in Ireland keeping it, and the conflict, burning.
How Canada deals with its relatively large, if not vociferous Tamil community will be interesting to watch. Especially if evidence of war crimes by the Sri Lankan government come to light, since the LTTE is listed by the Canadian government as a terrorist organization.
International Organizations
Journalists and international organizations were banned from the conflict zone, which means that unfortunately this war was fought without many, if any, witnesses. Rules of war were repeatedly violated by both sides. The Sri Lankan military used excessive force especially given that the Tamil fighters were embedded (by their own strategy) with civilian populations, while Tamil Tigers forced children to fight and fired on civilians trying to flee areas of fighting.
Meanwhile, the world watched silently, the United Nations deliberated for months as to where they should raise the issue, despite a unanimous resolution taken by the UN General Assembly in 2005 that the Security Council should take "timely and decisive" action when "national authorities are failing to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity".
Yet again, the UN has been slow to react.
Conclusion
For two decades the LTTE positioned itself as the sole representative of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka. How will the Sri Lankan government engage the Tamil and other minority groups in Sri Lanka? What sort of representation can they get?
Undoubtedly, the Sri Lankan government needs to start the process sooner rather than later, as the seeds of radicalization will be sown in the camps where the displaced, traumatize and starved wait to go home.
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1 comment:
There was an interesting piece on the CBC about two weeks ago discussing perceptions of the LTTE among the Tamil diaspora and amongst Sri Lankan Tamils in country. It was fascinating to hear a woman who was a high-ranking Tiger discuss how the diaspora holds the LTTE to a sort of romantic idea, brave and selfless fighters for all Tamils and so on, while the reality for those who still live there is different. She highlighted that vast numbers of Tamils in Sri Lanka do not support the LTTE at all as their brutality toward other ethnic groups or even Tamils who don't agree with them knows little in the way of bounds.
I do share your view that the government of Sri Lanka may well not have won any real lasting peace and what they have won has been at a terrible cost.
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