The Liberals are collapsing...

Just to give you a glimpse of what I can see here at the Green Party HQ.

News out of BC is that the Liberals are collapsing in BC.

They have only 11% of the support, the Greens have 18%, the NDP have 15% and the Conservatives have 30%.

Watching this election from the inside, I can make a couple of observations:

1) It really looks as if the "Left" wing in Canada is collapsing. There appears to be a new order in the left with 3 equally supported parties, the Libs, NDP and the Greens, and on the otherside are the Conservatives, which tend to have a solid base of about 26-30% of the population.

What has accounted for the Liberal collapse?

I think its because they simply don't have a firm position on anything. It is very clear what the conservatives stand for, it is very clear what the greens stand for, and the position of the NDP is also very clear.

The liberals on the other hand, appear wishy washy. They are so afraid of excluding anyone that they say both yes and no to everything. They seriously need to re-create their identity.

2) The Liberals and the Conservatives have become, it appears, regional parties.
The Conservatives only really win out West and in the Prairies (the odd seat in Quebec and in Ontario) and the Liberals only win in Ontario and a, to a weaker extent in the Maritimes.

Both the NDP and the Greens have support spread sporadically throughout the country but because they arent as regionally concentrated, they still get less seats despite having practically equal amount of support as the liberals.

So what can happen here? I think the Conservatives will win in a landslide majority with only 30% of the vote(even if the Greens exceed expectations and take all the votes that have left the Liberals in BC.

I think the Liberals will sit down and re-structure themselves after this devastating loss. Dion (although he would make a good PM policy-wise he is a terrible communicator), will step out and lots of changes will be made to the Party identity.

Still, we could be in line for a long reign of Conservative majority rule.